HEALTHPLAN MAGAZINE

While Spain and Italy have both been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, there are signs of positivity and hope ahead as death tolls lower in both countries, and a downwards trend of new cases continues.

Many European countries are beginning to hope that the virus is slowing as fatalities and new cases begin to fall. Consequently, European leaders are now facing the difficult task of preparing an exit strategy while maintaining public discipline.

When Will Lockdowns Be Lifted?

At the moment, recovery from the virus outbreak is still in its infancy across Europe. For example, in Italy, the death toll is now at its lowest. With 525 deaths on Sunday (5th April) compared to 681 deaths on Saturday (4th) and 766 deaths on Friday (3rd). Similarly, Spain reported 637 new deaths on Monday (6th) down from 674 the previous day and considerably lower than the peak of 950 deaths on Thursday 2nd April.

For a successful exit strategy, there must be a consistency in the slowdown of cases and deaths before any form of sanction lifting takes place. Both Spain and Italy believe that their strict confinement measures have been working.

As it currently stands, Italy and the UK have lockdown measures in place until 12th April and Spain until 26th April. However, governments may extend the lockdown on these dates.

On Saturday, Pedro Sánchez said that the government's primary objective is to flatten the curve, but he said this would take 'sacrifice and resistance'. The next task would be to reduce infections until the number of new contagions is lower than the number of people recovering each day. Only then would the country be able to see a progressive return to social normality with the reconstruction of the economy.

The prime minister has suggested that some businesses may be able to return after the Easter break, despite extending the lockdown for most families until April 26.

The Careful Balance Of Lockdown Exits

European leaders now face a difficult decision of working out when to lift sanctions. Too soon, and there could be a wave of new cases across each country. Too late, and the economy will enter a prolonged downturn. There will be colossal importance on how quickly the economy can normalise after the virus.

Exit Strategies

Some countries such as Germany and the UK are considering an immunity passport to ease lockdown measures. This would allow people who have been exposed to the virus and now thought to be immune from it to be able to return to their regular routines and work. A widespread testing regime would need to be in place to measure those who not only have the virus but have had the virus.

As the virus in Europe is following a predicted pattern of peaking in early April, it is largely expected that severe restrictions such as air travel will be lifted by mid-May. This is only as long as current discipline and lockdown measures remain in place and are followed to continue confining the virus.