A new study completed by the Singapore University of Technology and Design has suggested that Spain could be Coronavirus-free by September 9th. This is based on the prediction that Spain will have registered 97% of its Coronavirus cases by May 7th. By the end of May, it is expected that 99% of Coronavirus cases in Spain will be inactive.
The University is using an advanced AI system to predict the end of the pandemic. Globally, they estimate the world will be free from the virus by December this year. However, they expect nations to have very different end dates. For example, France and Germany are expected to get rid of the virus in August, while Italy, Spain and the UK are all predicted to be COVID-19 free in September.
The study predicts the United States will see an end to the pandemic on October 1st while Brazil’s end of the virus is estimated to be October 21st.
If the reality follows these predictions, it means that the virus will be present in Spain throughout the summer, even if there are no new outbreaks. Currently, AI mapping is following the rate of decline that is presently seen in Spain.
Could These Predictions Be Accurate?
It is important to stress that these are model-based predictions that cannot accurately measure the complexity of the Coronavirus. The researchers want to stress that their predictions are used with caution. The data used for AI modelling comes from all of the different nations, all of which are reporting their Coronavirus data differently.
These studies do, however, help countries who have a history with the disease as the AI can help to predict its life cycle. As a result, it can forecast what may happen if individual countries lift their lockdown controls too early, especially when the virus is still prevalent in other countries. For countries where the virus is relatively new, the AI does not have enough data for accurate predictions.
The other note of caution is that the AI modelling doesn’t take into account regrowth, which some scientists predict may occur in autumn.
January 14, 2021